The Fed, the Turkey Problem, and Why You Can’t Wait to Be Saved
Commentary On Wealth Issue #8
"The fragile wants tranquility, the antifragile grows from disorder, and the robust doesn't care too much.”
Nassim Nicholas Taleb Antifragile
Everyone has it wrong.
From the business world to the economics world to the political world, their analysis of the Fed’s decision-making, they have it wrong.
You may ask “Brad, why wait until now to say anything?”
There was a purpose to me waiting. I intentionally waited for the dust to settle and to see what people were going to say about this move. My conclusion, as expected, people are missing the impact that’s most important to you as a business owner. And if you’ve been in business for any amount of time you know, it’s dangerous to act on bad analysis.
I also didn’t want to jump in too soon and add to the noise. The media was quick to grab soundbites, politicians threw out buzzwords, and experts argued over whether the Fed raised or lowered rates too much.
But all that chatter missed the deeper reality: None of this is about whether the Fed’s decisions were "right" or "wrong" at the moment—they’re setting you up to fail unless you understand the game you’re playing.
I waited until now to talk about this because it’s not about reacting—it’s about recognizing the patterns that others miss and responding with clarity and intention. The Fed doesn’t work on your timeline. Their agenda is not aligned with yours as an entrepreneur. They are playing a long game, and if you don't see it, you’ll end up on the losing side.
This commentary isn’t about what already happened with the Fed’s latest moves. It’s about what you need to know moving forward to protect your business and build real, lasting wealth. So, let’s talk about the deeper problem: The Fed isn’t your ally. They’re not even neutral. Whether you like it or not, they are your most powerful silent business partner—and it’s time to understand what that really means.
Let’s not mince words here—if you’re running your business hoping for rates to drop again, you’ve already fallen for a trap. And that’s a dangerous place to be.
The Fed is Your Silent Business Partner (Whether You Like it or Not)
You don’t get to opt out of the Fed’s influence. Their decisions impact the affordability of your services and products. When the Fed adjusts rates, your customers’ spending changes. They might not know why they’re pulling back, but their wallets are feeling the pressure. And here’s where it gets tricky—those rate changes also affect your decisions.
In a low-rate environment, many businesses jump on projects that look profitable, simply because the cost of capital is low. But that’s not real profitability; that’s manipulated profitability.
This is the silent partnership with the Fed—one where the terms of the deal can change overnight, and you’re still expected to keep up.
The Turkey Problem: How Entrepreneurs Get Slaughtered
Let’s talk about the “Turkey Problem,” because this is where most entrepreneurs are heading if they don’t wake up.
Nassim Taleb laid this out perfectly in his book “Antifragile”. Imagine a turkey being raised on a farm. Every day, it’s fed and cared for. The turkey becomes increasingly confident that life is good, and with each passing day, it believes even more deeply that the farmer loves it. But the turkey doesn’t realize that every meal, every bit of care, is building up to Thanksgiving Day. On the day before Thanksgiving, the turkey’s confidence in its worldview is at its peak—right before it’s slaughtered.
Entrepreneurs right now are living the turkey’s life. They’re waiting for interest rates to drop, believing that when they do, everything will go back to the way it was. They’re thinking, "If I just hang on until rates fall, I’ll be fine." That’s a lie. The world of cheap money you relied on was artificial. If you’re running your business on that hope, you’ll end up just like the turkey—blindsided when the game changes for good.
The Dangerous Narrative of False Signals
If you’ve been following the news, you’ve heard the same recycled lines: “The Fed is stabilizing the economy,” “The latest rate change will fuel growth,” or “Relief is just around the corner.” But these are hollow promises. The media peddles hope, not reality.
Politicians latch onto these stories, promising quick fixes in exchange for votes. Meanwhile, financial advisors tell you to ride the waves of the market, urging investments in stocks or real estate, even though these markets only look healthy under manipulated conditions.
These same advisors likely called you when rates dropped, saying, “Good news! The stock market will rally.” But this is the same data that convinced the turkey the farmer loved it. If your plan is based on these signals, you’re following the herd toward disaster.
The Fed Isn’t Here to Save You (They’re Here to Save Themselves)
The Fed is supposed to maintain stable currency and keep unemployment low. But they’ve failed at both. The dollar has lost 97% of its value since the Fed was created, and the unemployment numbers you hear are riddled with manipulation. Politicians trumpet success, but they only count the people they want to count—ignoring the underemployed, students, and those who’ve given up looking for work.
And when things go south? The Fed props up zombie companies and failing institutions. In 2008, they bailed out banks and corporations that should have failed. During COVID, they printed money and kept interest rates artificially low, creating a mirage of economic growth. But instead of fixing the problem, they kicked the can down the road, inflating assets and setting us up for a bigger collapse later.
Their goal isn’t to protect you—it’s to keep the machine running. And if you think they’ll lower rates again to save your business, you’re falling for the same trick they’ve used for years.
Your Only Option: Build a Personal Economy That’s Untouchable
If you’ve been waiting for things to go back to “normal,” you’ve already lost. The Fed’s version of normal is an illusion. You need to build your personal economy—one that operates independently of the manipulated public markets.
This is where most entrepreneurs get it wrong. They chase external investments, throwing money into the stock market or crypto, hoping those will secure their future. But real wealth isn’t built by chasing trends. It’s built by investing in the assets you control: your business, your people, and your systems.
The Wealth Codex framework is designed to help you do exactly that. It’s about channeling resources into internal assets—customer relationships, intellectual property, and a loyal talent base. When you build your personal economy, your business becomes a fortress against economic turbulence. You’re no longer dependent on the Fed’s whims or the stock market’s volatility.
The Path Forward: Don’t Wait—Act
Inflation is already here, squeezing margins and making it harder for your customers to spend. If you’re waiting for the Fed to lower rates, you’re betting on a broken system. The only way forward is to act now.
Increase profits. Optimize operations. Reinvest in your business. Hire talent that can perform at a higher level. The economy won’t get easier—it will get harder. But if you build a strong internal economy, you won’t just survive—you’ll thrive.
Waiting for external conditions to improve is a fool’s game. The entrepreneurs who succeed will be the ones who take control of their destiny—those who stop hoping for the Fed to save them and start building something that can’t be taken away.
Distinguish the Signal from the Noise
In an election year, the noise is deafening. Politicians, media outlets, and financial advisors are all pushing their agendas. But none of them care about your business. Your job is to filter through the noise and find the signal—the data points that actually matter to you.
The Wealth Codex helps you do that. It teaches you how to see through the manipulation, focus on what you can control, and build a business that thrives in any economy. Don’t listen to the “turkeys” in the financial world who still think the Fed will ride to the rescue. Those people are playing a dangerous game—and they’ll take you down with them if you let them.
Final Word: Sovereignty Through Action
The Fed isn’t your ally. They’re not interested in your success. Their job is to keep the system running at all costs—even if that means leaving you behind. But you don’t need them.
Your path to wealth lies in building a personal economy that is independent, resilient, and profitable. At Sovereign Entrepreneur, we show you how to do exactly that. We teach you to recognize the real signals in the market, build wealth through actionable steps, and avoid the traps that have taken down so many others.
This isn’t about waiting for the right moment—it’s about creating the right moment. If you’re ready to stop hoping for things to get easier and start building real wealth, the time to act is now.
Brad Gibb
The Sovereign Entrepreneur
P.S. If you want us to get your own personalized Wealth Codex built, let me and the team know by filling out this form. We’ll put you on the waitlist to be notified if spots open up.
Great post! Thank you